Bitcoin recently experienced a decline from $105K to $102K, raising alarms among analysts who are now observing a potential drop to $94K as the next significant support level. This shift was primarily triggered by increased geopolitical tensions, particularly the airstrikes involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran, which led to substantial volatility in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Although there was a minor rebound, BTC’s short-term prospects appear precarious. According to analyst Burak Kesmeci from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has lost its bullish momentum.
Currently, BTC is trading below the FVRP intense swap zone at $95K, indicating a decline in consensus value. Remaining below this level may amplify selling pressure as it suggests that prices are under the zone where many investors previously acquired their holdings.
Additionally, with significant spot resistance around the SMA50 near $105K, the likelihood of a price rally in the near future seems diminished. BTC has faced rejections near the $105K mark for a second time, cementing it as a formidable short-term resistance level.
Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 41.59, indicating increased seller dominance, as it trends below the neutral threshold. This bearish trend is expected to persist, with predictions indicating a fall to around $94K based on the VAL level in the FRVP.
Moreover, data from Checkonchain indicates that Bitcoin is currently in a leveraged sell-off zone, suggesting weakened momentum and ongoing downside risks unless a significant influx of spot buyers occurs. The NVT Ratio has surged to 60.9, signaling that recent price increases lack sufficient transactional support, further underscoring the potential for retracement in Bitcoin’s price.
If the market conditions persist, Bitcoin could further slide to around $97,917 before considering an upward movement. However, recovery to $104K is possible if short positions from recent trades are squeezed.