Bitcoin has recently experienced a remarkable rebound, jumping by 11% to reach $83,500, amid an atmosphere of macroeconomic instability and bond market volatility. Notably, large holders, often referred to as “whales,” and long-term holders have played a crucial role in absorbing market pressure, acquiring approximately 100,000 BTC since March.
As the U.S. market grapples with significant volatility—exacerbated by the fallout from Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement and a dramatic increase in Treasury yields—the question arises: Is Bitcoin genuinely on the brink of a parabolic run, or is this speculation premature? The behavior of these large holders, who are sitting on significant unrealized profits, could greatly influence future price movements.
To better understand Bitcoin’s recent resilience, it is essential to examine the current state of the U.S. economy. Typically, U.S. bonds and treasury yields exhibit opposing movements; when the bond market declines, yields tend to rise.
Recently, the 10-year Treasury yield surged past the 4.5% mark, its highest since February, highlighting the strain on U.S. fiscal policy and increasing borrowing costs for the government. The bond market crash, partially fueled by foreign sell-offs, has magnified the risk of near-term rate cuts, undermining the dollar’s safe-haven status.
Despite these challenges in the broader market and a recent wave of selling pressure that saw Bitcoin dip below $75,000, the cryptocurrency staged a strong comeback. Data reveals that wallets containing between 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have consistently absorbed this selling pressure, demonstrating the influence of institutional investors.
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for long-term holders indicates they hold, on average, 68% in unrealized profits. With the current market dynamics, caution remains essential.
While there are indicators of potential growth, particularly from whale activities, external economic factors and geopolitical tensions suggest that it may still be premature to expect a sustained parabolic rise in Bitcoin’s value.